GE2020: Do you want another sort of freak election?
by Bertha Henson
If there ever was a time for the opposition to take the by-election strategy out of the bottom drawer, this is it. Because the chances of a “freak election’’ are high: The People’s Action Party (PAP) could well revert to being the only party in Parliament.
The bet is on the PAP romping home to glorious victory, swept up by the population’s retreat to safe harbour and its belief that only the PAP would have the technocratic nous to pull Singapore out of what seems to be an escalating economic crisis.
Ironic isn’t it? Usually, the term “freak election’’ is a reference to the ouster of the PAP as government, because voters have an increasing appetite for opposition and failed to consider that they might not be alone in this. That’s the scenario that has often been conjured up by the PAP leaders when they warn the electorate not to throw out the baby with the bathwater.
That by-election strategy was implemented successfully in 1991, when the opposition contested fewer than half the seats available, ensuring that the PAP returned to power. It contested just 40 out of 81 seats, enough for the PAP to form the government on Nomination Day.
Many opposition politicians have taken credit for this strategy which led to four opposition MPs entering Parliament through single-seat wards. But at that time, this could well be an electoral accident – opposition parties weren’t able to find enough candidates, including minority candidates, to fill Group Representation Constituency (GRC) slates. The 1991 General Election (GE) was only the second time the GRC system was exercised.
Another reason: there were still 21 single seat wards, allowing intensive campaigning in a small area and for the individual, rather the party brand, to push the voter into making his or her choice. The number of SMCs was trimmed down to the minimum of nine in the next election in 1997, staying at that number for two more GEs until it was slowly raised to 14 for the coming election.
The by-election strategy has not been repeated since, although then-Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong decided to turn the concept in its head when he called for a by-election in his own Marine Parade GRC the next year. He dubbed this “a by-election with a general election effect’’, arguing that a PAP loss would signal a lack of confidence in the PAP leader and bring the government down. He won with 72.94 per cent of the votes.
Since then, the myriad opposition parties in Singapore have contested all seats, with the exception of Tanjong Pagar GRC, the seat of PAP founder Lee Kuan Yew. That changed in 2015 after Mr Lee’s passing. GE2015 saw all 89 seats contested.
Some opposition parties should opt out
But even as the opposition politicians spread themselves out, there have been concerted attempts to avoid three-cornered fights, which have traditionally favoured the incumbent. Steps towards an opposition alliance though have never borne any fruit as the Workers’ Party, the largest opposition force, has always been reluctant to parley. It was the same in the run-up to this coming election.
Attempts by opposition politicians who sought to get former presidential candidate Tan Cheng Bock to lead an alliance came to naught, as Dr Tan moved on to set up his own Progress Singapore Party (PSP). Even a small scale alliance of four opposition parties fizzled out early this year. One of them, Singaporeans First Party, declared itself dissolved this week.
Since the Prime Minister announced the election on Tuesday (23 June), the political parties seemed to be engaging in the horse-trading of seats via the media. It has reached the stage when the newest political party, Red Dot United, pronounced that it would make way in Jurong GRC, if another opposition party was vying for the seat.
The latest count based on media reports showed that all 93 seats have been reserved by opposition parties, with three-cornered fights possibly surfacing in Bukit Panjang, Pioneer, Punggol West and Yio Chu Kang SMCs, as well as Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC.
The PSP has overtaken the WP in terms of the number of seats to be contested. It will field 24 candidates in five SMCs and four GRCs, while WP will defend its Hougang and Aljunied GRC seats, while aiming for East Coast and Marine Parade GRCs, Sengkang GRC and Punggol West SMC. At 21 candidates, this is far fewer than the 28 it fielded in GE2015, which could reflect its focus on keeping the seats it already has and gunning for the ones it has the most chance of winning. For example, in 2015, it decided not to contest the Jalan Besar and Nee Soon GRCs, which had turned out a dismal vote count of 32.3 per cent and 33.2 per cent respectively for the party.
The hardworking SDP is staying in its traditional stomping grounds of Holland-Bukit Timah GRC, Yuhua SMC and Bukit Panjang SMC, with 11 candidates. It had to tweak its campaign message in light of the COVID-19 virus. For example, it had earlier wanted to campaign against the CPF minimum sum scheme. Now, it is advocating the payment of some retrenchment benefits and a monthly $500 income for low income retirees.
Together, the WP, PSP and SDP will be contesting 56 of the 93 seats, a little more than half of total seats.
SingFirst’s Tan Jee Say did the right thing to dissolve his party. It had fielded 10 candidates in GE2015. As for the rest of the seven assorted political parties, I wish they would stay out of the picture. The opposition strength looks dissipated enough as it is, fractured by ideological or personal reasons.
The PAP already has a ready-made counter to voters aching for more opposition voices in Parliament. Even if no opposition candidate was elected, there are 12 Non-Constituency MP (NCMP) seats available for the best losers. It has even neutered the objection that NCMP seats are tokenism: the NCMPs have full voting rights, including the right to vote on constitutional amendments.
In fact, the electorate can have their cake and eat it too: The PAP in government as well as PAP MPs running town councils with its trademark efficiency (remember the Aljunied-Hougang town council saga hasn’t been settled yet) and enough opposition MPs to check on the government.
Nomination day is next Tuesday, three days away. What is your definition of a “freak election’’ should all seats be contested?
Bertha Henson is a veteran Singapore journalist who now lectures at NUS. The views expressed are her own.
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