2024: the fault lines that could rock US-China ties
STORY: After a year that brought panic over spy balloons…
… a fight over semiconductors…
…. and an intensifying military rivalry…
… China and the United States are ending the year with an uneasy détente, with both Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping looking to stop a free fall in their countries’ relations.
But 2024 could bring new turbulence. Here are three problems that could cause a stumble in U.S.-China ties.
[2024 Taiwanese Elections]
Taiwan votes in mid-January for its new president and legislature. China considers Taiwan its own territory.
Taiwan officials say Beijing has been escalating military maneuvers near the island and pushing a prickly narrative.
“There have been very stern warnings from China that this is war and peace election for Taiwan, and independence for Taiwan would mean war.”
Reuters correspondent Antoni Slodkowski has been following these events from Beijing.
Though increased warnings and military pressure during elections isn’t new at all for Taiwan, this time Beijing really dislikes the frontrunner: Democratic Progressive Party vice-president Lai Ching-te and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim.
“The commentary in China has been pretty negative about the DPP candidature. They have been called colluding villains I think, the sort of ruling party ticket, and the independence double act.”
The U.S. could be drawn in if military tensions escalate in the Taiwan Strait, and there’s a precedent for that. In 1996, the U.S. sent an aircraft carrier group to the area in response to China’s military exercises and missile tests ahead of voting.
[US Presidential Election]
The 2024 U.S. presidential election could be even more consequential. Barring last-minute surprises, it will likely be a rematch between Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump.
Reuters’ US Foreign Policy editor Don Durfee explains its implications for the U.S.-China relationship.
“Trump is less of a fan of traditional American alliances including NATO and some of the alliances in Asia. If a Trump administration were to mean a pullback from Asia, China would see that in its benefit. On the other hand, Trump was very tough on China during his time. He imposed new tariffs, there were arguments about COVID and the Chinese leadership found it to be a very difficult administration to work with. So there’s an argument from analysts that the Chinese might actually prefer Biden because he’s more predictable, they feel like they have a partner they can negotiate with.”
[Chips Conflict]
Semiconductors remain a key issue in the U.S.-China tech rivalry.
And the US is expected to beef up export controls designed to prevent China’s military from getting its hands on the most advanced semiconductors.
“We’re going to see another tightening of export controls in the coming fall in 2024, and we’ve also heard from officials that the U.S. intends to enforce these rules more strictly. So they intend to go after individuals and companies they might see as violating this.”
While China sees this as an effort targeted at their development, it struggles to push back since retaliating against U.S. businesses would only drive away the foreign capital Beijing needs as its economic growth slows.
Things may look cordial between Washington and Beijing for now, but that could change unexpectedly in the coming year.
From presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States to continued trade fights, there are no shortage of fault lines between the world’s two largest economies.
